Federico Bordonaro

As predicted, Turkmenistan is signaling that it aims at diversifying its gas exports, a news that sounds good to European ears:

On April 23-24, Turkmenistan hosted an international energy security conference. The conference gave the Turkmen authorities an opportunity to emphasise their interest in diversifying gas export routes, particularly as falling demand for Russian gas is starting to affect Ashgabat. A recent explosion and disputes over pricing have worsened the relationship between Turkmenistan and Gazprom and intensified Ashgabat’s drive to find new transit routes and markets.

However, Turkey’s ruling élite has apparently chosen to use its possible support for the Southern Corridor project as political leverage in its complex relationship with Europe. This appears to complicate once again the path of the now famous Nabucco gas pipeline:

The AKP government, however, continues to obstruct the project, causing it to lose momentum again as it nears the landmark signing dates. Clearly, the AKP government does not share the EU’s goal of moving forward with Nabucco by signing the IGA and clearing the way for the PSA’s. Instead, the AKP government has developed a vested interest in dragging out the project, using it as leverage on the EU in the even longer-dragging EU-Turkey accession negotiations and even on extraneous issues, such as the Cyprus conflict.

The Turks are now emboldened by the renewed US courtship, and they feel they can raise the stakes in the Eurasian energy game. Europe must take this variable into serious consideration if it is to end the Southern Corridor’s gridlock.