Federico Bordonaro

As predicted, Turkmenistan is signaling that it aims at diversifying its gas exports, a news that sounds good to European ears:

On April 23-24, Turkmenistan hosted an international energy security conference. The conference gave the Turkmen authorities an opportunity to emphasise their interest in diversifying gas export routes, particularly as falling demand for Russian gas is starting to affect Ashgabat. A recent explosion and disputes over pricing have worsened the relationship between Turkmenistan and Gazprom and intensified Ashgabat’s drive to find new transit routes and markets.

However, Turkey’s ruling élite has apparently chosen to use its possible support for the Southern Corridor project as political leverage in its complex relationship with Europe. This appears to complicate once again the path of the now famous Nabucco gas pipeline:

The AKP government, however, continues to obstruct the project, causing it to lose momentum again as it nears the landmark signing dates. Clearly, the AKP government does not share the EU’s goal of moving forward with Nabucco by signing the IGA and clearing the way for the PSA’s. Instead, the AKP government has developed a vested interest in dragging out the project, using it as leverage on the EU in the even longer-dragging EU-Turkey accession negotiations and even on extraneous issues, such as the Cyprus conflict.

The Turks are now emboldened by the renewed US courtship, and they feel they can raise the stakes in the Eurasian energy game. Europe must take this variable into serious consideration if it is to end the Southern Corridor’s gridlock.

Interview for RFERL.

The European Union repeatedly emphasized unity in the wake of vows at a major meeting late last year to pursue a new energy policy.

Pledges of solidarity to develop a unified energy grid and an end to dependence on Russian gas were renewed again in January, when member states found themselves frantically meeting again when a Russia-Ukraine dispute disrupted natural-gas supplies to a freezing Central and Southeastern Europe.

There has been broad agreement on the need for a diversification of suppliers and new import routes. But divisions quickly emerge when the topic turns to specific projects, and critics suggest national and private interests threaten to eclipse the exigencies of the EU as a whole.

The fate of the Nabucco gas-pipeline project is arguably a case in point.

Interview for RFERL.

Two energy conferences are taking place this week — one in Bulgaria, the other in Turkmenistan — that could result in major decisions being made on pressing issues surrounding European imports.

State officials and business representatives in both Sofia and Ashgabat will be discussing how to reliably transit energy resources — mainly natural gas — from locations in Asia to markets in Europe.

There are subtle differences in the agendas of the two conferences, but both will be focused on divining which pipelines will transport gas to Europe, and from which countries the gas will come.

The meetings come as Europe is attempts to break free from its heavy dependency on Russian-controlled energy supplies and troublesome transit routes that pass through Belarus and Ukraine.

Descrizione, comprensione e spiegazione della realtà delle relazioni internazionali rappresentano passaggi necessari per la realizzazione di chiavi interpretative e, soprattutto, di scenari futuri. Questa attività, tanto affascinante quanto seria e complessa, viene comunemente definita analisi previsionale.
Il Corso avanzato di Geopolitica e Analisi delle Relazioni Internazionali (Geopolitica) costituisce uno strumento di approfondimento essenziale per tutti coloro che hanno già un’esperienza nell’Analisi delle Relazioni Internazionali e per coloro che vogliono dotarsi di strumenti raffinati nell’ambito della ricerca in tematiche internazionali e geopolitiche.

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