Federico Bordonaro

Will Russia and Georgia fight a second round next Summer? Analyst Pavel Felgenhauer thinks so.
Interestingly, his reasoning is focused on geography and geopolitics, even if he doesn’t explicitly mentions the two factors:

The first war — which Felgenhauer predicted long before its onset — was seen as recompense for Russia’s antipathy toward Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili and his determined pursuit of NATO membership. But Felgenhauer says there is more to Moscow’s long-term strategy: “[Russia] may not like Saakashvili, we may not like NATO, but there is also another thing: Armenia is cut off; [Russian] troops in Armenia are cut off. There’s no transit by land. That means technology cannot be taken out of there for repairs or modernization, and technology cannot be taken in, other than by air. Such a situation cannot last long.”

The Armenian bases are important to Moscow, Felgenhauer argues, as a symbol of Russian ambitions in the South Caucasus. Armenia is a close Russian ally, but its isolation could cause Yerevan to “start looking the other way,” Felgenhauer says. Russia’s subjugation of Georgia would remove that threat, and would in turn isolate Azerbaijan, which is currently resisting Russia and putting out feelers to the EU and the United States.

Felgenhauer predicts that the next Russian assault on Georgia will be a “war to a victorious end.” He predicts its main theater could be the road between Gori and Mtshketa just outside Tbilisi. But, Felgenhauer says, Tbilisi itself would not be the Russian army’s top strategic objective: “What is important is not so much Tbilisi. But west of Tbilisi there is the Tbilisi international airport [and] many airfields.” This is important, Felgenhauer said, “because right now in South Ossetia we do not have a single permanent airstrip, as the terrain is highly uneven.”

The closest Russian air base is currently in Beslan, in North Ossetia.

The best time for war, according to Felgenhauer, would be between June and August, when high mountain passes are free of snow. He said Russian forces would also need at least two months in hand to wind down operations before winter returns in October.

Felgenhauer discounts the eventuality of an intervention on the part of the United States. He notes President Barack Obama’s main goal is victory in Afghanistan, to effect which he will need to transit supplies and men through Russia and countries in its sphere of influence. In exchange, the thinking in Moscow goes, the United States will be willing to trade its interest in Georgia.

Thus, to Felgenhauer’s mind, a war is all but inevitable. “The only way you could avoid it,” he says, “is if there’s regime change in Tbilisi — or regime change in Moscow.”