Ukraine, Russia, and natural gas
3/1/2009Quote from an “Intelligence Guidance” published by Stratfor:
[…] Ukraine, Europe and the Russian natural gas cutoff: Russia and Ukraine are locked into their annual dispute over natural gas pricing and supplies, and gas shipments to Europe again have been disrupted. In a departure from previous episodes — when influence over Europe was part of Moscow’s rationale for the cutoff – the Russians now are focused on directly shaping the Ukrainian government in a direction more to their liking. They want Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko gone. But now that the shutoff has been declared, every issue in the region — Russia’s resurgence, European energy diversification, Western interests versus those of Central Europe, U.S. penetration into the former Soviet space and so forth— is squarely on the table.
Oxford Analytica thinks that:
The previous dispute in 2006 ended quickly; this time, it could last longer, because both Ukraine and EU states have stockpiled in advance, and the depressed state of Ukrainian manufacturing has reduced demand. Moscow and Kiev are both in a position to exert pressure, in the absence of a permanent solution to the annual conflict over gas, and amid growing geopolitical estrangement.
