Federico Bordonaro

Geopolitica e fase politica interna: due motori della nuova fase di conflitto fra Israele e i Palestinesi.
Una lucida analisi nel “Geopolitical Diary” di Stratfor del 29 dicembre:

Underneath all of this is a core reality: A Palestinian state on the 1948 borders is an impossibility for both Palestinians and Israelis. For the Palestinians, it would mean a state divided physically between Gaza and the West Bank, without an independent economic foundation. It would be a fiasco. For the Israelis, the 1948 borders would allow the Palestinians to rocket Tel Aviv easily, with no guarantee that a Palestinian state would or could put a stop to it. The Palestinians need more than the 1948 borders, and the Israelis can’t even give that.

Therefore, the current cycle of violence is simply one of many such cycles that are hardwired into the geography of Israel and Palestine and from which there is no escape. It is almost unnecessary to go through the political reasoning that has led each side to this point, except to explain why it is happening now instead of earlier or later. The politics simply determine the time and shape of conflict. Geography determines that the conflict is intractable.

Gli analisti di Oxford Analytica, intanto, prevedono che l’operazione israeliana porterà pochi frutti:

It will likely soon become apparent that Israel’s campaign has done little to resolve the problems posed by a Hamas-ruled Gaza; such solutions are likely to emerge only through negotiation with the group. It may well be in anticipation of such pressure for dialogue, in the context of the incoming US administration, that Israel is now acting to defang Hamas and shape any engagement process. In the meantime, airstrikes on civilian infrastructure, limited ground operations, and a further darkening of the regional atmosphere are likely.