Federico Bordonaro

La convergenza della crisi politico-diplomatica fra Russia e Stati Uniti sulla Georgia e della crisi finanziaria originata dai “mutui subprime” americani influisce sull’equilibrio di potenza nell’area Mar Nero-Mar Caspio.
In primis, gli USA hanno perso molte posizioni, in termini d’influenza reale, nella regione, come espone M. K. Bhadrakumar su Asia Times Online dell’11 ottobre:

[…] Most certainly, there is already a backlash in the region. Azerbaijan, which the Bush administration once regarded as close regional ally, snubbed Vice President Dick Cheney during his visit to the capital, Baku, last month.
[…] gainst the backdrop of the conflict in the Caucasus in August, the Caspian Sea basin has become a focal point. This was inevitable. At the core lies Washington’s determination to avoid Russian participation in the European energy-supply chain. To quote Ariel Cohen of US conservative think-tank the Heritage Foundation, “Since August, US diplomats have been busy trying to shore up Washington’s geopolitical position all around the Caspian, including Baku, [Turkmenistan capital] Ashgabat and Astana.”

Russia is gaining the upper hand in the region. Despite robust US diplomacy in Ashgabat - over 15 American delegations arrived there in the past year - Turkmenistan, which already exports around 50 billion cubic meters of its gas through Russia, has responded well to Moscow’s overtures. It has decided to stick to the terms of an April 2003 deal whereby virtually all its exports are handled by Russia “up through 2025″, and Turkmen gas exports to Russia are expected to rise to 60-70 billion cubic-meters by 2009, leaving hardly any surplus for Western companies. Ashgabat has also committed to the construction of a pipeline to Russia via Kazakhstan along the eastern coast of the Caspian Sea.

Inoltre, approfittando del devastante effetto che la crisi finanziaria ha avuto sul sistema bancario islandese (da tempo esposto pericolosamente in tal senso), Mosca ha proposto il proprio aiuto a Reykjavik, ma — secondo alcune fonti riportate da Stratfor — in cambio dell’appoggio islandese sul piano politico: il paese nordico potrebbe opporsi all’integrazione di Georgia e Ucraina nella NATO nel prossimo dicembre.

when Moscow and Reykjavik discussed a loan to aid the plummeting situation in Iceland, Russia put a demand on the table: nixing NATO membership for the former Soviet states of Georgia and Ukraine. Six of the G-7 members are also in NATO, and it is most likely that Russia has once again placed this order on the table.

I rapporti di forza fra Russia e blocco euro-atlantico nella cruciale regione del “Grande Mar Nero” potrebbero quindi trovarsi presto modificati, a favore di Mosca, in ragione della convergenza delle due crisi. Di fronte a tale scenario, Berlino sembra preferire una postura conciliante con il Cremlino, accentuando le proprie divergenze con Londra e Varsavia. Vale la pena seguire da vicino l’evoluzione del problema.