Federico Bordonaro

L’8 agosto, alle ore 9:10 locali, la radio georgiana Imedi ha affermato che le forze georgiane hanno ormai riconquistato Tskhinvali, capitale dell’auto-proclamata repubblica indipendente dell’Ossezia del Sud.

Cliccare qui per immagini dei combattimenti dell’8 agosto.

Il premier russo Vladimir Putin ha annunciato “ritorsioni” contro “l’aggressione georgiana”, mentre Tbilisi accusa Mosca di aver già inviato forze aeree a supporto dei ribelli:

Georgia today said three Russian jets had entered its airspace and dropped bombs at two locations just south of a rebel enclave in the breakaway region of South Ossetia.

The announcement came as Russian prime minister Vladimir Putin, who is in China to attend the opening of the Olympic games, said that “aggressive” action by Georgia would incur a “response” from Russia.

Nel frattempo il Consiglio di Sicurezza dell’ONU, riunitosi stamane, non ha trovato l’accordo per richiamare tutte le parti coinvolte alla rinuncia alla forza.

Diversi analisti prendono in esame il contesto militare, arrivando in alcuni casi a conclusioni diverse.

Pavel Felgenhauer di Eurasia Daily Monitor fa notare:

Moscow may have been considering supporting a limited operation against Georgian forces (say, in the Kodori Gorge in Abkhazia) that would undermine the present Georgian government of President Mikheil Saakashvili but could be presented to the world as Abkhaz separatist forces acting on their own. In South Ossetia, no limited action is possible. The Georgians are holding back from outright offensive action, but if the Ossetians succeed in provoking a major confrontation, they will be in trouble. Tskhinvali is semi-surrounded by Georgian positions and is virtually indefensible. To prevent the fall of Tskhinvali thousands of Russian troops with hundreds of pieces of armor must invade South Ossetia through the Rokki tunnel and be rushed forward. High casualties are possible and this would be a clear act of aggression.

Kokoity and other Ossetian officials seem to be bent on provoking a major Russian intervention, but apparently not everyone in Moscow is ready to plunge headlong into war.

Se questo è vero, allora i calcoli di Kokoity si stanno rivelando errati.
Secondo Stratfor però

the Georgian offensive seems rushed. Georgia’s military is small, and despite deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan, still has trouble sustaining the training it has had with NATO and U.S. units. Tbilisi is bringing its very limited resources to bear, and if it has indeed decided to make its move, it will fight hard, though there will be organizational and operational challenges for the largely conscripted force. But if Georgia does end up taking the South Ossetian capital, then the Russians must respond.

The South Ossetians have been saying for the past hour that Russian tanks are crossing the border through North Ossetia, through the two-lane Roki Tunnel, though it will take them at least three hours to get from the border to the conflict zone and the tunnel will be a key chokepoint. Moreover, the Russians could respond with combat aircraft and helicopter gunships, but the Russians do not work best at night and it is currently just past 4 a.m. in the country, leaving the next few hours for the Russians to either get their tanks to the point of conflict or prepare their air operations.