Federico Bordonaro

Una breve analisi di Oxford Analytica:

French President Nicolas Sarkozy will be extremely busy this Monday.

That, at least, is the official reason why he had to cancel (“postpone”) the Franco-German summit with Chancellor Angela Merkel, which was scheduled to take place that day in Bavaria.

Qualcosa di impensabile sino a pochi anni fa… le implicazioni del raffreddamento delle relazioni franco-tedesche, tuttavia, possono essere molteplici, soprattutto a medio termine….

Quanto è realistica la formazione di un’area integrata comprendente i paesi della “grande regione del Mar Nero”? Se lo chiede l’analista armeno Haroutiun Khachatrian per ISN-Security Watch:

While the concept of the “Wider Black Sea” geopolitical region looks promising given the support of external powers such as the US and the EU, who see the region as an important buffer between Europe and the Middle East, upon initial examination, the concept seems hardly viable, for the states that comprise it have little in common.

The nations included in this geopolitical labeling (Turkey, Georgia, Russia, Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Moldova, Greece and some of the Balkan states) are all in close proximity to the Black Sea, but differ in many respects: language, religion, culture and governmental organization, among other things.

Some share historical problems, and unresolved territorial and ethnic conflicts (mostly inherited from the communist regimes) spoil the relations of many of these countries.

Finally, the region is under the competing influence of the three “geopolitical poles” - Russia, the US and the EU - a fact that seems to make every possibility of a common security approach improbable.

The self-proclaimed president of Georgia’s breakaway republic of Abkhazia, Sergei Bagapsh, wrote in local media that “in the near future Abkhazia will appeal to the Russian parliament and the UN Security Council with a request to recognize its independence.”

Anes Alic per ISN-Security Watch

Online il sito dell’ICTS, con il primo occasional paper a cura del Dr. Kemal Kaya.
Per il Wider Black Sea Programme è in preparazione il Working Paper

The Emerging Strategic Dynamics in the Wider Black Sea Area
Federico Bordonaro

European Union’s and N.A.T.O.’s enlargements toward East have fundamentally changed the relationship between Western and Eastern Europe. Western liberal-democracy and the U.S.-led Euro-Atlantic security architecture have penetrated deeply into what was once the Warsaw Pact, Russia-led Eastern Europe and they are attracting into their orbit former Soviet Union’s republics like Ukraine, Georgia, and Azerbaijan.
In the new context, the so-called “Wider Black Sea Region” emerges as a complex and still to be defined area. It encompasses the Black Sea’s riparian states (Russia, Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey, and Georgia) and a set of nations that are more or less directly linked to the sea’s basin (Moldova, Greece, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Serbia, Albania, and possibly Macedonia and Montenegro). It connects the Euro-Atlantic political-strategic axis with the Russia-dominated Eurasian heartland, Turkey, and the Middle East. Arguably, it is one of the post-Cold War era’s more important macro-regions. Classical military-strategic security, energy security, and social issues are intertwined aspects of the region’s strategic dynamics.

Forse sarà una sorpresa per i media europei e americani, molto attratti da facili semplificazioni: Vladimir Putin ha espresso un giudizio severo sull’economia russa, sulle sue inefficienze, sulla sua allarmante dipendenza dall’export di gas e petrolio, sui costi della burocrazia e sulle implicazioni di tali debolezze per la sicurezza nazionale.
Il discorso odierno di Putin sembra indicare che nei prossimi anni il partito Russia Unita, che ha saldamente in mano il potere, cercherà di liberalizzare l’economia russa, semplificare la burocrazia e incoraggiare la piccola e media impresa. Un compito non facile, ma le parole di Putin sembrano indicare che il modello statalista e accentratore scelto negli ultimi otto anni sia stato concepito come fase transitoria, mirante alla ricostituzione della potenza russa, verso una maggiore apertura. Che i “siloviki” abbiano letto e fatto loro Friedrich List?

Analisi di Andrei Chang per l’UPI:

The United States and Japan are behind a plan to strategically isolate China, which has been very successful so far. Both Tokyo and Washington believe that the scale, pace and strategic intent of China’s arms expansion in recent years are far beyond its needs for a future conflict in the Taiwan Strait. They see China posing an immense challenge, over a much broader area, against the United States, Japan, NATO and even India. China’s latest moves to construct an aircraft carrier and build new nuclear-powered submarines are specific examples of this challenge.

Why is NATO planning to locate ballistic missile defense bases in Poland and the Czech Republic? The United States managed to convince NATO that China’s intercontinental ballistic missiles may pose a threat to NATO members’ territory. These facilities would not only be directed at Russia, according to multiple military sources within NATO countries.

On several occasions, the United States has replaced China with North Korea as the potential target of missiles from East European bases. But why should Europe and NATO be on guard against non-existent intercontinental ballistic missiles from North Korea? In fact, the bases are related to the fact that NATO views China as a potential threat and an unstable factor that directly influences its security.

Secondo Chang, inoltre, la Cina cercherebbe di “sfruttare le divisioni interne” alla NATO per indebolirla. Insomma nonostante le recenti tensioni con la Russia, il problema del fondamentalismo islamico, le “minacce asimmetriche”, sul medio periodo si profilerebbe una minaccia molto classica: lo scontro fra potenze, stavolta contro la Cina.