Federico Bordonaro

Analisi scritta per il P.I.N.R..

Moscow’s decision to impose a moratorium on the C.F.E. Treaty must be understood in a broader framework. From an international and geostrategic point of view, Moscow’s move suggests that Russia is determined to bring the United States and N.A.T.O. to the negotiation table as it thinks that the Western strategic position has weakened in the last five to six years. Therefore, Moscow hopes to stop N.A.T.O.’s expansion and to maintain a strong strategic influence in Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia. In this sense, it seems clear that the B.M.D. and C.F.E. issues are diplomatically intertwined.

However, domestic policy concerns in the United States and in Russia will make diplomatic relations between Washington and Moscow more difficult in the short term. While it is likely that Moscow’s suspension of the C.F.E. will not translate into overtly aggressive moves and a massive military build-up, the current crisis may bring serious political implications, especially because it risks causing divisions within N.A.T.O. about what policy should be adopted toward Moscow.