Federico Bordonaro

Analisi per ISN-Security Watch con intervista a Samuel R. Schubert. Intanto, Vladimir Putin in occasione del suo incontro con il premier portoghese José Socrates afferma che il sistema anti-missilistico USA impiantato in Europa porterebbe a una “pericolosa corsa al riarmo” nel Vecchio continente.

Although the Kremlin has repeatedly expressed its doubts about whether the BMD plan is actually aimed at countering Iran, as well as its fears that the installations could serve to aggressively check Russia’s security space and possibly even provide offensive ballistic capabilities, US officials have firmly replied that the system would be nonsensical were it conceived as an anti-Russian tool. Moreover, Washington has tried unsuccessfully to engage Russia in jointly developing the project.

In an interview with ISN Security Watch this week, Samuel R Schubert, a US scholar with Vienna’s National Defense Academy, said that “At a technical level, US interests to place additional forward radar facilities in the Caucasus are based on a simple technical calculation.”

“The earlier the BMD radar network detects a launch, the more time the system has to calculate trajectory, increasing the likelihood of a successful interception,” Schubert said. “Moreover, the Caucasus [region is] significantly closer, in fact close enough to Iran, to technically justify installation of additional forward radar facilities.”

Political-strategic calculations in Moscow, EU capitals and Washington, however, make Georgia’s bid for hosting parts of the system “politically premature,” Schubert said. In spite of Obering’s speech last March, Schubert believes that debate about Georgia’s possible role as a BMD radar host stems “rather from speculation put forward by Leonid Ivashov, the deputy head of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems, a Russian think-tank.

“Still, Georgian as well as Ukrainian interests in joining the trans-Atlantic security network make both possible clients for any future discussions on the theme”

Articolo per Asia Times Online

Stymied by its seemingly hopeless ambition to join the European Union, Turkey is reconsidering its diplomatic strategy with the goal of becoming the main bridge for Western interests into energy-rich Central Asia, where it can claim to have ethnic, linguistic and religious affinities.

Brief scritta per il P.I.N.R.

Anti-European nationalism will remain a fundamental political force in Serbia in the coming years. In the short-term, political uncertainty is likely to persist, and in the case of early elections in July, pro-European forces will suffer from citizens’ low confidence in democratic institutions. Therefore, a strong pro-European course in Belgrade appears unlikely to take shape in the near future.

However, the economic implications of the anti-European turn could be negative for a country like Serbia, which has no strategic resources and lost its Adriatic outlet when Montenegro became independent. Weaker economic growth will likely create discontent in a country full of well-educated workers. Hence, in the medium term, modernizers could win the hearts and minds of Serbians since the country needs a stable and friendly environment to develop.

Analisi scritta per il P.I.N.R.:

For Sarkozy, the real domestic troubles on the short-term will probably come from the suburbs of France’s major cities, where his will to fully restore the state’s authority will clash with both criminal networks that control illegal trafficking, and with young citizens who are frustrated by unemployment or poor employment.

The big challenge for Sarkozy and his new government will be that of controlling possible riots without falling into the trap of excessive repression. PINR expects such a threat to the new French ruler to remain high for the next 6-12 months.

Gli scontri fra forze dell’ordine e manifestanti anti-Sarkozy non si sono fatti attendere. Per il nuovo presidente, tenere sotto controllo i conflitti sociali è vitale per poter mettere in pratica il proprio programma di riforme economiche.