Federico Bordonaro

Come anticipato nella Intelligence Brief dello scorso 4 aprile, e nel PINR del 13 marzo u.s., la questione del sistema anti-missilistico USA in Europa centro-orientale sta peggiorando i già tesi rapporti russo-americani.

Dall’IHT di oggi:

President Vladimir Putin said Thursday that Russia would suspend its compliance with a treaty on conventional arms in Europe that was forged at the end of the Cold War, opening a fresh and intensive dispute in the souring relations between NATO and the Kremlin.

Putin’s announcement, made in his annual address to Parliament, underscored the Kremlin’s anger at the United States for proposing to install a new missile defense system in Europe, which the Bush administration insists is meant to counter potential threats from North Korea and Iran. Putin suggested that Russia would use its future compliance with the treaty as a bargaining point in that disagreement with United States.

Il doppio fronte della sicurezza energetica e degli equilibri strategici con Mosca sono, come più volte anticipato, ritornati prepotentemente sul proscenio della politica di sicurezza europea. Per ora, con scarsa reattività da parte dei paesi UE, incerti e spesso divisi. Tale incertezza continua a pesare sui rapporti euro-atlantici e a sfavorire il ritorno a un multilateralismo effettivo invece che solamente “annunciato”…..

Link a una recente intervista con il “Global Journalist”.

Intanto: secondo il Figaro di oggi

NICOLAS SARKOZY apparaît comme le candidat le plus crédible face à Ségolène Royal, y compris chez les électeurs de François Bayrou, selon notre enquête hebdomadaire Opinion Way pour Le Figaro et LCI. Les personnes interrogées sont 51 % à faire confiance au candidat UMP pour réformer le pays, contre 24 % qui lui préfèrent Ségolène Royal. Dans le détail, 48 % des électeurs centristes font confiance à Nicolas Sarkozy pour mener les réformes, contre 16 % à la candidate socialiste.

Mentre Fraçois Bayrou lancia dure accuse a Sarkozy, tacciandolo di manipolatore dell’informazione.

In Europa, intanto, José Manoel Barroso, Tony Blair e Angela Merkel starebbero pensando a un “partenariato strategico” con Nicolas Sarkozy in caso di vittoria di quest’ultimo.

Nicolas Sarkozy may still have work to do to win the French presidency but he has already secured the unspoken support of Berlin, Brussels and London.

To leaders in Europe’s big power centres, Mr Sarkozy may be an abrasive Gaullist, but he is best placed to bring a reformed France back into the political mainstream, making him the fourth member of a powerful group of Atlanticist European Union modernisers.

Angela Merkel, German chancellor, José Manuel Barroso, European Commission president, and Tony Blair, British prime minister, have privately discussed the idea of forming a “strategic partnership” with Mr Sarkozy.

Interessante analisi di Tom Engelhardt che sintetizza le motivazioni geostrategiche, e le conseguenze politiche, della lunga “guerra al terrorismo” iniziata dopo l’11 settembre.

Still, the arc of instability, as a name, was then more prediction than reality. And it was a prediction — soon enough to become a self-fulfilling prophesy — on which George Bush, Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, and all those neocons in the Pentagon readily staked careers and reputations. As a crew, already dazzled by American military power and its potential uses, such a bet undoubtedly looked like a sure winner, like betting with the house in a three-card monte scheme. They would just give the arc what it needed — a few intense doses of cruise-missile and B-1 bomber medicine, add in some high-tech military boots-on-the-ground, some night-vision goggled eyes in the desert, some Hellfire-missile-armed Predator drones overhead, and some “regime-change”-style injections of further instability. It was to be, as Andrew Bacevich has written, “an experiment in creative destruction.”

Intel brief scritta per il PINR.