Federico Bordonaro

Pechino afferma di aver fatto una importante scoperta in campo petrolifero.

For 15 years, China’s oil companies have scoured its territory for new oil sources, drilling in Central Asian deserts and the floor of the Pacific, hoping to reduce rising dependence on imports.

After years of disappointment, PetroChina Ltd. announced it has found an offshore field that could become China’s biggest new domestic-petroleum source in a decade, with reserves of 2.2 billion barrels, the official Xinhua News Agency said Wednesday.

Such a field would be a “world-scale discovery,” said Gavin Thompson, an oil consultant in Beijing for the Scottish firm Wood Mackenzie.

“In terms of energy security, a 2-billion-barrel discovery is going to be very welcome, not only to PetroChina but to China’s energy planners,” he said.

Intervista per Radio Free Europe - Radio Liberty.

Analisi scritta per ISN-Security Watch:

Germany’s initiatives in South Caucasus appear to be the beginning of a new phase in EU politics. For Berlin and its European partners, energy and strategic security concerns are the first priority, even though EU public opinion is often focused on ideological approaches to European relations with Russia, the US and young democracies.

Berlin can be expected to continue its sophisticated diplomacy aimed at cultivating good relations with Russia while expanding the EU’s influence and structures in Russia’s near abroad. For EU states, the more Washington and Moscow work on a broad strategic cooperation, the better their chances of securing their interests.

Approfondimento scritto per Asia Times Online:

Under pressure from the US, the EU extended its 18-year embargo on advanced weapons sales to China. But the European arms industry is champing at the bit to sell arms to China (or lose sales to Russia). The emergence of new leaders, especially in France, could tip the balance in the near future.

Analisi scritta per il P.I.N.R. sul problema della difesa anti-missile

Washington is finally reaching its long term goal of setting up a B.M.D. system in Europe, largely as a result of the pro-U.S. governments in Poland and the Czech Republic. The Pentagon can be expected to push for achieving the final agreements, even though Germany and the Western European powers will try to mediate between Moscow and Washington.

The European Union, therefore, will be forced to make its choice: either it can propose to the United States the joint development of a common B.M.D. system — possibly in cooperation with Moscow — or it must accept the occurrence of a severe fracture between the Atlanticist and the Continentalist states within the Union itself. In the latter case, bilateral strategic ties between the Atlanticist countries and the United States will make the B.M.D. issue in Europe a reality, but one that Brussels will not control, kissing goodbye the chances to forge an effective European security and defense policy.

Per il premio Nobel Carlo Rubbia, si organizzano troppi convegni, si fanno troppe chiacchiere, e si agisce troppo poco per far fronte all’emergenza energetica. Inoltre, si dovrebbe puntare con decisione su energia solare e idrogeno.

L’Italia dovrà darsi un bella regolata per affrontare seriamente i problemi del clima e dell’energia, strettamente legati fra loro nelle scelte da attuare […]
È ora di smetterla di organizzare convegni, bisogna rimboccarsi le maniche passando ai fatti. Discutere va bene, ma finora ci si ci è limitati soprattutto a questo impegno che non produce risultati. E la realtà è che continuiamo a comprare troppa energia per mandare avanti il Paese»[…]
in Europa ci sono diversi modi di vedere la questione energetica e climatica, la Francia ad esempio è a favore del nucleare, la Germania no. Ma tutti dobbiamo muoverci verso un obiettivo comune lasciando ad ognuno la libertà di scegliere la via per raggiungerlo
[…] Parlando di energie rinnovabili molto chiacchierate ma poco coltivate, è inutile insistere con l’energia eolica perché di vento ce n’è poco nella Penisola al contrario dei Paesi del Nord o dell’Irlanda. Anche la biomassa rappresenta una nicchia limitata. Invece il sole è l’unica sorgente che abbiamo abbondante e ancora da sfruttare. Noi, con le altre nazioni del Sud Europa, Spagna e Grecia, dobbiamo lavorare su questo fronte anche costruendo impianti solari nel Nordafrica, nel Sahara ad esempio dove ci sono grandi spazi desertici, trasferendo via cavo l’energia prodotta verso la Sicilia […]
E l’idrogeno […] è una necessità impellente […] L’idrogeno è l’unica via per sostituire il petrolio ma occorre ancora un buon lavoro di ricerca per utilizzarlo. E se non lo farà l’Italia, lo faranno gli altri. Io raccomanderei ai miei illustri colleghi di impegnarsi di più.

The future for the West in Afghanistan is bleak, and it is made more discouraging by the fact that much of the West’s defeat will be self-inflicted because it did not adequately study the lessons of history.

Così Michael Scheuer, analista di intelligence della Jamestown Foundation, su Asia Times di oggi. Per Scheuer, la storia afghana, l’indole guerriera delle sue componenti tribali, e la “impenetrabile topografia” del Paese sono alla base del disastro che si profila:

In the most general sense, the defeat of Western forces in Afghanistan occurs repeatedly because the West has not developed an appreciation for the Afghans’ toughness, patience, resourcefulness and pride in their history. Although foreign forces in Afghanistan are always more modern and better armed and trained, they are continuously ground down by the same kinds of small-scale but unrelenting hit-and-run attacks and ambushes, as well as by the country’s impenetrable topography that allows the Afghans to retreat, hide, and attack another day.

Inoltre, la collocazione geopolitica del paese rende difficile una proiezione di forza sufficiente per le potenze che cercano di domarne la resistenza e la riottosità.

[…] Western forces - while better armed and technologically superior - are far too few in number. Today’s Western force totals about 40,000 troops. After subtracting support troops and North Atlantic Treaty Organization contingents that are restricted to non-combat, reconstruction roles - building schools, digging wells, repairing irrigation systems - the actual combat force that can be fielded on any given day is far smaller, and yet has the task of controlling a country the size of Texas that is home to some of the highest mountains on Earth.

L’India potrà contare su una base militare in Tagikistan — per la precisione ad Ayni, usata dai Sovietici negli anni Ottanta in funzione afghana… Per ora, gli Indiani non stazioneranno i MiG, ma solo elicotteri. In ogni caso, scrive Sudha Ramachandran:

The Ayni base will apparently be under the command and control of India, Tajikistan and Russia by rotation. The base will be jointly maintained by the Indians and the Russians. It is believed that New Delhi agreed to India-Russia joint maintenance under pressure from Moscow.

Una notizia che non farà molto piacere a Washington.