Mosca corteggia Hanoi

29/9/2006

Putin è deciso a espandere il ruolo russo nel settore dell’energia in Vietnam. Ma va oltre: lancia una banca russo-vietnamita e adocchia nuove possibilità nei rapporti con i paesi ASEAN.

Una mia analisi per Asia Times Online.

Russia appears eager to expand its all-around strategic cooperation with Vietnam, and enhanced business ties will inevitably lead to stronger political and strategic ties. Russia is back in Southeast Asia, and judging by Moscow’s aggressive moves in Vietnam, similar developments with other regional countries may also soon get under way.

Le difficoltà dell’Italia in Afghanistan

28/9/2006

Articolo per IPS news sulle conseguenze politiche dell’inasprimento del conflitto in Afghanistan.

L’Italia e l’integrazione degli immigrati musulmani

25/9/2006

Articolo scritto per IPS News (InterPress Service). Dopo la proposta del ministro degli interni, Giuliano Amato, di una “Carta dei Valori”, e dopo le polemiche seguite al discorso di Joseph Ratzinger a Regensburg (12 settembre), l’urgenza di mettere in piedi un’efficace politica di integrazione nei confronti dei musulmani in Italia è ancor più sentita. Ma la sfida non è facile.

Il triangolo franco-russo-tedesco ha o meno un avvenire?

23/9/2006

L’incontro tra Putin, Chirac e Merkel solleva la questione della profondità strategica del dialogo politico-diplomatico e industriale tra Mosca, Parigi e Berlino.

E’ da segnalare, innanzitutto, che il tentativo russo di entrare in forza nel consorzio militar-industriale EADS incontra molte resistenze, se non da un punto di vista finanziario, da uno politico-strategico, come scriveva il Financial Times del 14 settembre:

EADS, the Franco-German aerospace and defence group, issued a clear warning to Moscow on Thursday that it was not willing to contemplate Russian representation on its board or any move that would give Russia influence over the group’s corporate governance.

The statement made jointly by Manfred Bischoff and Arnaud Lagardère, the German and French co-chairmen of Europe’s biggest aerospace and defence group and the parent company of Airbus, came only days before the Russian, French and German leaders are due to hold a trilateral summit at the end of next week in Paris.

Sul Figaro del 23 settembre si legge:

Le triangle germano-francorusse est loin d’avoir la cohérence de celui qui avait été formé en 2003 avec l’ancien chancelier Schröder contre la guerre en Irak. [leggi tutto– > ]
(more…)

Una “superpotenza energetica”?

Sebbene Vladimir Putin e la sua amministrazione cerchino di rassicurare in merito alla propria affidabilità in materia di sicurezza energetica, non pochi osservatori rilevano un sempre più evidente legame tra l’enorme disponibilità russa di petrolio e gas naturale e il loro uso politico-strategico da parte di Mosca.

Secondo il diplomatico indiano M.K. Bhadrakumar,

Russia has grasped the Central Asian and Caspian energy resources in a bear hug. Meanwhile, an increasingly nervous US looks at the dismal failures of its energy diplomacy and realizes it needs allies to combat the “adversorial regimes” - Russia is one - which wield the oil weapon. And Washington may just have found one in China. The two meet, along with Japan, India and South Korea, next week to look for ways to break out of the Russian squeeze

Per W. Joseph Stroupe, le promesse “rassicuranti” di Putin non potranno essere mantenute, e l’ascesa di una “superpotenza energetica” è ormai sicura:

Putin heads a resurgent Russia that is racing ever faster toward the consolidation of its key global position as respects energy security, the unique global position where it, more than any other single energy exporter, can and in fact already is setting the global agenda and taking the unquestioned leadership role in defining and drawing the circle of international energy security.

As evidenced at the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in June, where Putin proposed the creation of an SCO-centered energy club, and the Group of Eight summit the following month, Russia has already expertly threaded the needle of international energy security policy, doing so with the thread of its own compelling energy security vision and strategy, powerfully bolstered by its mounting global energy leverage. It is now deftly wielding that needle and thread to sew together the circle made up of the globe’s key energy producers and the powerful rising energy consuming economies of the East.

Francia e Italia in Libano… e oltre?

13/9/2006

Mio articolo per ISN-Security Watch sulle prospettive politico-strategiche della collaborazione italo-francese nel quadro UNIFIL-2.

With the deployment of French and Italian troops in Lebanon to lead a new UN mission, observers see an opening for the EU to strengthen its political and security role in the Middle East

Verso una nuova frattura transatlantica?

9/9/2006

Analisi scritta per il P.I.N.R. dopo le dichiarazioni di Bush sull’Iran (comparato ad al-Qaida) e la risposta francese con Douste-Blazy e Villepin.

Although France — together with Germany, Belgium, and Luxembourg — already showed its disagreement with Washington’s war on terrorism and its Middle East policy back in 2003, Paris ended up more isolated than expected in the following years and tried to recover the transatlantic relationship.

However, it also signaled that a change in Washington’s Middle East strategy was needed in order to build up a new, more effective and balanced Euro-Atlantic cooperation.

If the United States abandons the diplomatic option in the Iran crisis and opts for the use of force, it is unlikely that Paris will side with Washington unless it is totally isolated by the other E.U. members and by Russia and China.

Should a new transatlantic rift occur only three years after the Iraq war, the viability of a structured, consistent Euro-American security strategy would be seriously challenged.

Rapporto di Chatham House: Iran e Medio Oriente

4/9/2006

Il Royal Institute for International Affairs (RIIA) ha pubblicato in agosto un lungo rapporto sull’Iran e il Medio Oriente. L’ “Executive summary” delinea con chiarezza la posta in gioco strategica nella complessa partita mediorientale di cui Teheran è un attore decisivo… (more…)

Come la Russia ha rovesciato la partita strategica: Mosca e la “canaglia”

Perché Mosca sembra corteggiare gli “stati-canaglia”?
Analisi pubblicata per “Asia Times Online” il 29 agosto:

Russia has undoubtedly signaled that it is able to change the military balance in selected regional contexts. For instance, and almost unnoticed by the Western media, Moscow is adding significant arms deals to its energy-cooperation projects with Algeria, in such a way that could dramatically change the regional equilibrium in North Africa (which is - let’s not forget it - included by Washington in the “Greater Middle East”).

But deducing from such a fact that Moscow is structurally hostile to the West would be a serious mistake. On the contrary, Russia’s tough message is a call for a fresh start in the Russo-Western security relations on a global scale.

As a consequence, the US and its Western allies should reconsider their strategic ties with Moscow. Thinking that it is possible to enlarge NATO and the EU by following an exclusively Western agenda, and by ignoring Russian security concerns, will only push Putin and his followers toward a more unfriendly foreign-policy strategy, behind the diplomatic jargon and the official stances, with dire consequences for global stability.

Turchia: uno snodo essenziale per la sicurezza energetica europea

Articolo pubblicato per ISN-Security Watch il 28 agosto.

Being well aware of its strategic role in energy security, Turkey seems eager to take full advantage of it and does not appear overly concerned by US and EU anxieties over Russia. Rather than a context marked by rigid alternatives and fierce Turkish-Russian competition, the future is most likely to bring a more complex game in which cooperation and competition will coexist, with regional players opting for flexible strategies to suit their political and economic needs.