Federico Bordonaro

Analisi scritta insieme a Jean-Philippe Miginiac per il P.I.N.R. In evidenza il rafforzamento politico di Hezbollah, nonostante la devastante offensiva miliatare israeliana non sia stata così inefficace come molti pensano:

As a result of the July-August conflict, Hezbollah is winning the information war within the Arab world even though it suffered losses in the 32 days of the war. Israel decided to advance cautiously and slowly on the ground after the air campaign because it was concerned with the high number of casualties caused by Hezbollah’s fierce resistance.

According to Israel, it destroyed much of Hezbollah’s longer-range Zelzal missiles, killed approximately 500 guerrillas, disrupted the militia’s supply routes and eliminated some top officers. Nevertheless, Israel failed to annihilate the organization’s offensive capability (which was the war’s declared objective).

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It can be expected that Hezbollah will try to capitalize from its political success as it will try to progressively take control of the leadership in Lebanon. Beirut’s current administration appears weak, and the only variable that could change the balance of power between Lebanon’s Siniora government and Hezbollah would be a massive influx of U.S.-E.U. military aid to Lebanon’s army, which could easily spark a very dangerous conflict between the latter and Hezbollah.

On the other hand, if France and the other components of the U.N. forces refrain from decisively upgrading Beirut’s military capabilities, the effective disarmament of Hezbollah seems impossible to attain, thus putting the resolution and U.N. credibility at risk.

With Hezbollah and its leader rapidly emerging as a dominant force in Lebanon, expect Israel and the United States to consider all available options to destroy what they perceive as an unacceptable threat. Because of Tehran’s deep involvement in Lebanon via Hezbollah, the stage is set for a new phase in the U.S.-Iranian conflict.