Analisi del Conflitto Israelo-Libanese
21/7/2006Doppia analisi del conflitto in corso sul P.I.N.R. Dario Cristiani prende in esame gli obiettivi e il ruolo degli attori regionali (Siria e Iran):
the crisis between Israel and Lebanon is not merely a conflict between two states, but is a more complicated question involving state actors — Israel, Lebanon, Syria and Iran — and non-state actors — Hezbollah, Hamas and other Palestinian militant factions. It is in Iran’s and Syria’s interests to support these armed groups — especially Hezbollah — but if Israel threatens to expand the war into the larger region, this support could weaken.
Una Intelligence Brief fa invece il punto sugli aspetti strategico-militari alla luce delle potenzialità offensive degli Hezbollah e degli obiettivi dichiarati dal governo Olmert, cercando di individuare le probabili prossime mosse israeliane.
Such an arsenal gave Hezbollah the capability to strike all major Israeli cities such as Haifa, Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, thus threatening Israel’s core. After Hezbollah’s retaliatory strength became clear, the Israeli military began to perceive the threat differently, with military analysts saying that some of Israel’s worst fears were coming true. Therefore, the Olmert administration considered its vital interests at stake and decided that a decisive victory against Hezbollah needed to be achieved at all costs.
Such a decisive victory, however, may be more complicated to achieve than it appears. Although the Israelis can overcome tactical difficulties such as the tracing of all launch infrastructure deployed by Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, they cannot rely solely on air strikes since they are trying to eliminate Hezbollah from southern Lebanon permanently.
Nel pomeriggio del 21 luglio, il sito di analisi geopolitica Strategic Forecasting così commentava il contesto strategico : […leggi: (more…)
