Corea del Nord: Test Missilistici ed Equilibri in Asia Nordorientale
7/7/2006Un articolo del Washington Times di oggi fa il punto sulle conseguenze geostrategiche della mossa nordcoreana. L’articolo cita esplicitamente un’analisi del P.I.N.R. del 20 giugno.
Sugli ultimi sviluppi, e sulle prospettive a breve, si veda anche l’Intelligence Brief del P.I.N.R. del 5 luglio:
In the wake of the missile tests, it will be significant to monitor how all of the players in the Six-Party Talks adjust their positions. Washington will likely respond aggressively, although short of any actions that will cause a radical change in the intensity of the conflict; immediately after the tests, for example, the White House announced that while the tests were “provocative,” they posed “no immediate threat to the United States.” Instead, Washington has concentrated on the fact that the more threatening Taepodong-2 missile test failed. Tokyo will follow Washington’s lead since U.S.-Japan interests are generally aligned toward North Korea, and it apparently has called for an emergency Wednesday meeting at the U.N. Security Council.
More revealing will be the response by China and South Korea. If Beijing does not take significant action against Pyongyang after the tests, it will demonstrate that Beijing will maintain its current status-quo policy toward North Korea. If Seoul refrains from harshly criticizing Pyongyang, it will demonstrate that it does not see the missile tests as a significant threat to its interests and will continue to pursue its policy of increasing economic ties with the North.
