Federico Bordonaro

Le possibilità che il conflitto USA-Iran sulla questione nucleare sfoci in un attacco militare statunitense contro Teheran sono in aumento, secondo molti osservatori.

Stephen Larrabee, studioso di strategia e politica di sicurezza, si chiede il 2 maggio se Washington, che appare propensa a usare la forza contro l’Iran, abbia o meno imparato la lezione dell’Iraq:

As the Bush administration wrestles with how to respond to Iran’s latest challenge, it would do well to reflect on the lessons of its military invasion in Iraq. The toppling of Saddam Hussein was supposed to lead to a democratic Iraq that would ignite the fires of democracy throughout the Greater Middle East. Instead, regime change in Iraq has sparked regional turmoil and set off a chain reaction of unintended consequences.

Rather than being a beacon of democracy, Iraq today is wracked by deep-seated sectarian divisions and it is on the brink of civil war. There is a serious risk that the country could fragment, creating a power vacuum that could lead outside powers — and terrorist groups — to deepen their involvement in Iraq. Meanwhile, the United States finds its armed forces stretched thin and poorly prepared to deal with other possible contingencies.

Larrabee individua tre obiettivi tattici fondamentali per Washington, da raggiungere affinché l’eventualità di un’azione militare anti-iraniana possa essere scongiurata:

First, Washington needs to begin to rebuild its relations with Turkey. As the security environment in the Middle East becomes more volatile, keeping a democratic, secular Turkey firmly anchored to the West should be a top U.S. priority. This is all the more important because Turkey’s relations with the European Union are strained and could further deteriorate if accession negotiations with the EU bog down.

Second, instead of calls for regime change and threatening military intervention, the United States needs to begin a direct security dialogue with Iran that addresses Iran’s real security concerns. The recent agreement with Iran to begin discussions about Iraq is a step in the right direction and could serve as a building block for a broader dialogue on other issues, including but not limited to the nuclear issue. Such an offer could strengthen the hand of the more sober-minded members of the Iranian regime who lately have begun to speak out more forcefully against President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s extremist policies.

Third, after decades of dithering, the United States should embark upon a major effort to reduce its dependence on oil and natural gas from the Persian Gulf region. This effort should be considered a critical national security priority and should integrate both foreign and domestic policy.

Su AsiaTimes Online del 24 maggio, Iason Athanasiadis, illustra invece il modo con cui Teheran si sta preparando a un confronto militare con Washington. Anche in questo caso, l’Iraq è servito da guida, secondo l’autore, per la messa a punto di un dispositivo tattico da parte iraniana.

Iran’s new asymmetrical-warfare plan appears to be aimed at neutralizing possible US-led offensives across the Mandali-Ilam (central Iraq-central Iran) axis. The Iranian Zagros mountain range offers a natural first line of defense. It has been reported that the RG is constructing new bases at Khorramabad, Pessyan, Borujerd, Zagheh and Malayer in the province of Lorestan, which would assure the logistics of a quarter of a million troops and provide temporary shelter for half a million refugees from the border. These bases are supposedly complementing older ones further west at Sahneh and Kangavar.

“We know for a fact that no two Western wars are similar,” said Hossein, a member of the RG, “and we know there are at least three possible scenarios of attacking these [nuclear] sites, including using their submarines in the Persian Gulf, commandos from the sea, or Mujahideen-e-Khalq trained in Israel and Azerbaijan to destroy the Bushehr nuclear power plant from the inside.”

Even while Iran’s military is choosing to go low-tech, the country’s leadership is continuing to apply advanced technology to military uses. Tehran is continuing with development of its long-range missiles and is forging ahead on its indigenous satellite program that centers on Russian-supplied technology.

In addition, Tehran’s aging air-defense system will be boosted by Russian-supplied land-to-air rockets. Also, Iran has aging Chinese missiles that it upgraded and could deploy on coastal batteries, fast attack boats or even warplanes. Finally, were Iran to possess the fearsome Russian-made 3M-82 Moskit anti-ship missiles, it could turn the Persian Gulf into a death trap for the US fleet.