Analisi scritta per il P.I.N.R. sulle elezioni ucraine del 26 marzo.
Whatever the outcome of the elections, expect Moscow to continue putting pressure on the coming Ukrainian government to secure its own strategic and economic interests. Since Washington and its N.A.T.O. allies appear determined to include Kiev in their security and economic community, the whole area connecting the Baltic regions to the Caucasus — via Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine, and Georgia — is set to remain a contested zone by competing U.S. and Russian influences.
N.A.T.O.’s insistence on penetrating the Russian-dominated Eurasian landmass could therefore prove strategically short-sighted as it will likely undermine a better and more useful partnership between Washington and Moscow.
Such a perspective does not summon political stability in the four concerned countries. For the European Union, the prospect to integrate Ukraine in the coming decade may cause further divisions among key powers, and Kiev’s march toward Western economic standards appears long and difficult.