Il programma europeo “Galileo” — un sistema di “global positioning” alternativo al GPS — avanza. Data la partecipazione attiva della Cina nel progetto, non pochi, negli USA, si dicono preoccupati.
Una mia analisi per ISN-Security Watch fa il punto della situazione
Su Asia Times Online, bell’articolo di Francesco Sisci (La Stampa) sul rapporto tra “Occidente” e Cina, alla luce della storia — o meglio, della storia di una precedente “transizione di egemonia”…
A proposito delle divergenze franco-tedesche in merito, e soprattutto alle reazioni in Francia seguite al cedimento di Chirac di fronte alle pressioni di Berlino, interessante questa raccolta di commenti a caldo in Francia, a cura del Nouvel Observateur.
Un’analisi pubblicata dalla Jamestown Foundation espone l’intensa attività, via internet, di gruppi militanti islamisti alla ricerca di obiettivi economici statunitensi:
A series of documents recently (re)circulating on the internet continue to underline a pressing jihadist interest in targeting U.S. economic assets. Some of these documents are quite explicit and detailed, giving indications of specific pipelines and facilities to attack—not only in the Gulf, but wherever in the world such assets can be targeted.
Le Monde del 24 gennaio riporta le accuse russe dal sapore di Guerra fredda:
Des espions déguisés en “étudiants”, une pierre qui émet et reçoit des “informations codées”, des versements de fonds étrangers à des ONG russes : le scénario aurait pu être celui d’une série noire s’il ne s’agissait des révélations faites, dimanche 22 janvier, par les services de sécurité russes (FSB), forts d’avoir démasqué quatre diplomates britanniques en poste à Moscou dans leur activité d’espionnage. Ces hommes ne sont pas menacés d’expulsion, dit le FSB, qui s’est attaché à décrire leurs liens financiers avec des ONG.
Il Cancelliere tedesco Angela Merkel è a Mosca, dopo aver fatto visita a G.W. Bush a Washington.
Una mia analisi per il Power and Interest News Report sulla strategia politica di Berlino.
L’autorevole “Global Strategic Analysis”, servizio a cura dell’organizzazione britannica Oxford Analytica, ritiene che la “auto-censura” di gran parte dei principali mezzi di informazione statunitensi, tra cui il New York Times, stia entrando in una fase di “declino”:
The present decline in media self-censorship will engender greater public understanding of administration policy. Renewed attempts by the government to filter unclassified information would be self-defeating and undermine the public debate that facilitates sound policymaking.
Vedremo nei prossimi mesi.
Una versione leggermente ridotta dell’analisi è disponibile gratuitamente sul sito di Forbes.
Austria put the EU’s energy security issue at the top of its agenda last week after Vienna took over the helm of the bloc’s rotating presidency on 1 January. Josef Pröll, Austrian Agriculture Minister and president of the EU’s Agriculture Council, told the press this week that the gas dispute between Russia and Ukraine had made one thing very clear: the EU must act to reduce its dependence on fossil energy sources.
The recent Russian-Ukrainian dispute over natural gas prices has highlighted Europe’s strong dependence upon and hence vulnerability to its energy suppliers.
About 40 per cent of the EU’s gas supplies come from Russia, and almost 80 per cent of that gas is transported through Ukraine. The figures speak for themselves: any dispute between Russia and Ukraine can turn out to be very dangerous for Europe.
Un articolo di “Spengler” su “Asia Times” del 10 gennaio rivela i timori di un conservatore americano nei confronti della politica statunitense in Iraq — e del progetto stesso di “Grande Medio Oriente”.
La premessa di “Spengler” è che
hrough democratic institutions, Washington believes, the long-marginalized Shi’ites will adapt to religious pluralism. Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani’s Islam, fixed in amber since the High Middle Ages, will metamorphose into something like American mainline Protestantism.
Alas, the available facts suggest that the opposite result will ensue: more freedom equals more fundamentalism. Not the secular Shi’ite parties but the pro-Iranian religious parties dominate the Iraqi polls. In Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood quadrupled its vote despite heavy-handed measures to intimidate its supporters; Hamas threatens to displace Fatah in the Palestinian elections this month; Hezbollah has become the strongest electoral as well as military force in Lebanon; and, most important of all, Mahmud Ahmadinejad crushed a more pragmatic opponent in last June’s Iranian presidential elections.
In relazione ai recenti casi di infezione da virus H5N1, non è senza interesse rileggere il saggio di Michael T. Osterholm pubblicato, nell’estate 2005, da “Foreign Affairs”:
If an influenza pandemic struck today, borders would close, the global economy would shut down, international vaccine supplies and health-care systems would be overwhelmed, and panic would reign. To limit the fallout, the industrialized world must create a detailed response strategy involving the public and private sectors.
Un’analisi scritta per il Power and Interest News Report sulla crisi tra Russia e Ucraina.
Since Central and Western European countries also largely depend on Russia for their natural gas supplies, Putin’s stance against Ukraine could endanger European-Russian relations as well. It is also true that Russian credibility as a reliable world energy supplier could come under question if the Kremlin’s anti-Kiev move causes serious regional problems. Apparently, though, the Russians seem to believe that they can force the situation precisely when Moscow takes the helm of the annual G8 presidency.
