Federico Bordonaro

Articolo di Yevgeny Bendersky per il P.I.N.R. sul ruolo di Mosca nell’organizzazione di Shanghai.

China’s economic ambitions now span the globe and Beijing most certainly gives Russia a prime place in its decision-making strategy. While Russia does not feel the effects of closer cooperation with China — given Beijing’s still maturing status as an emergent power — the continuance of current demographic and social trends inside Russia might place it at a disadvantage vis-à-vis China fairly soon. The S.C.O. might serve as the main vehicle for China’s strength and Russia’s long-term weakness.

Given Russia’s historical desire for independence in global politics, it might find itself at odds with its closest partner that will be larger in every category except territory. Now, more than ever, there is a need to develop Russia’s economy so that it will not become yet another market for Chinese goods — however, while Russia’s economy grows every year, it still has not developed a strong domestic market for its goods and services. This — not its arms exports, or its oil pipelines — will eventually earn it a place among the world’s great powers. In the absence of such a development, Russia will become China’s junior partner, eventually losing its momentum as a dynamic country even with its growing exports of arms and natural resources.