Federico Bordonaro

Il diario online va in vacanza — arrivederci a settembre.

F.B.

Ampio dossier del Figaro sulla crisi nucleare iraniana. Come scrivevo nella Intelligence Brief del 7 luglio:

Look for Iran to hold on to its nuclear energy program and further develop its relations with Russia, China and the Shanghai Cooperation Group. Expect the U.S. and Israel to make every effort to destabilize the Iranian political landscape.

L’editoriale del Figaro, a firma di Pierre Rousselin, nota come

Les Iraniens diront qu’ils n’ont pas repris l’enrichissement de l’uranium. Mais l’on ne transforme pas le minerai en gaz si ce n’est pour l’enrichir, opération nécessaire à la fabrication de la bombe. Et l’Iran, deuxième puissance pétrolière au monde, ne trompe personne en prétendant que tout cela ne vise qu’à produire de l’électricité.

(more…)

Mio articolo per il Power and Interest News Report su una crisi diplomatica piuttosto seria nell’Europa orientale — una crisi che cela una battaglia di notevole importanza per l’influenza nella regione dell’ex Patto di Varsavia…

Ashraf Fahim si chiede, su Atimes del 6 agosto, quale sarà il destino delle basi militari statunitensi in caso di ritiro delle truppe — mossa più volte evocata negli ultimi tempi:

The Bush administration, it would seem, is finally responding to pervasive anti-occupation sentiment in the US and Iraq. But the raft of announcements does little to address what many believe is a deeper problem - the Iraqi insurgency is likely being driven by fears that even once the large majority of US forces leave, enough will remain behind in permanent bases to allow the US to control Iraq’s destiny.

Significative le conclusioni:

If the Bush administration wishes to retain a military presence in Iraq it may yet find the Iraqi leadership amenable. They are, after all, dependent on US forces for their survival. But the Iraqi public is fiercely nationalistic (”a proud and independent people”, as Bush called them) and their suspicions of the US can only grow as rumors proliferate of concrete being poured in distant military bases. And unless the Iraqi government actually consults its people before inviting the Americans to stay, even a nominally democratic Iraq could become just like the other US allies in the region, in which there is an immense chasm between the desires of the rulers and the aspirations of the ruled.

Un ricco dossier di Asia Times Online sulle radici del terrorismo islamico. Quattro contributi, e visioni diverse. Il paese preso in considerazione è l’India. In India, infatti, vivono 100 milioni di musulmani. Sono tuttavia assenti, almeno finora, gruppi legati al terrorismo internazionale.

• Blaming mosques and madrassas - Ramzy Baroud
• Roots of terrorism reach into history - Harout H Semerdjian
• Beyond Muslim condemnation of terrorism - Louay Safi
• India and the democratic alternative - Siddharth Srivastava

Mio articolo per il Power and Interest News Report: in un’epoca di turbolenza geopolitica in Medio Oriente, Asia Centrale e Oceano Indiano, il Pakistan è uno degli snodi centrali della conflittualità in atto.