Federico Bordonaro

In un’analisi per il Power and Interest News Report, Michael Weinstein e Yevgeny Bendersky segnalano il consolidarsi di un riallineamento diplomatico/strategico mondiale nel senso di un passaggio verso la multipolarità sistemica:

n the summer of 2004, the drift towards multipolarity was evident, but the balance of power in which it would eventuate was still uncertain. A year later, the configuration of multipolar world power is coming into focus and shows signs of settling into a stable alignment in the short term that promises a period in which no great power has an interest in taking major military initiatives — an era of relative peace in which some powers attempt to regroup and retrench to make up for their loss of momentum, and others try to accelerate their ascent by continuing their economic growth and enhancing their military capabilities.

Da questa constatazione, derivano una doppia previsione: sul breve termine, si noterà un intenso lavoro di collaborazione tra potenze, teso ad accumulare capacità — e quindi si avrà un periodo di relativa calma. Sul medio/lungo periodo, tuttavia, tale mutamento sistemico potrebbe produrre delle serie crisi internazionali:

The short term likelihood of global stability does not prefigure a similar result in the medium and long terms; it is a consequence of a specific conjuncture in which all the major regional power centers are constrained to turn inwards in order to cope with domestic political strains and to fit themselves for achieving their more ambitious strategic aims in the future. The present moment of stasis is just as likely to be a prelude to a period of intensified conflict as it is to presage long term peace.